Fantasy football enthusiasts, brace yourselves! Week 7 is here, and the defense rankings are more unpredictable than ever. After a tumultuous Week 6, where only three of the top 10 defenses lived up to expectations, we’re diving into the chaos headfirst. But here’s where it gets controversial: is this season’s unpredictability a fluke, or are we witnessing a new NFL norm? Let’s break it down.
The NFL landscape this season has been nothing short of a rollercoaster. No undefeated teams after five weeks? Check. Surprising upsets and lackluster quarterback performances? Double check. It’s enough to make even the most seasoned fantasy manager scratch their head. And this is the part most people miss: while some defenses like the Packers and Patriots stumbled, others like the Raiders, Bucs, Jets, Bears, and Giants unexpectedly climbed into the top 10. What does this mean for your lineup? Let’s find out.
Ranking Philosophy & Methodology
Before we dive into the Week 7 rankings, let’s clarify how these decisions are made. My approach isn’t just about matchups; it’s about identifying defenses that consistently pressure quarterbacks, create turnovers, and limit scoring opportunities. Here’s the formula I use, which might spark some debate:
BOD Formula:
((Pressure Rate x 2) + Forced Completion Rate + (Turnover Rate x 2))
MINUS
(Expected Points Per Play Allowed x 100) + (Conversion Rate Allowed x 0.5) + (Opponent Scoring Rate x 2)
This total is then combined with the team’s fantasy points allowed per game over the last six weeks. But here’s the kicker: I don’t rely solely on numbers. Manual adjustments are made for injuries, weather, and other intangibles. It’s a blend of analytics and intuition—a strategy that’s both praised and criticized. What do you think? Is this approach too complex, or just right?
Week 7 Defense Rankings: Tier by Tier
Tier One: Elite Plays
1. Denver Broncos (vs NYG) – The Broncos are a force to be reckoned with, ranking 1st in pressure rate, EPA per play allowed, and conversion rate allowed. Jaxson Dart and the Giants will face a daunting challenge in Denver’s altitude. Bold prediction: The Giants’ upset streak ends here.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (at CIN) – Despite concerns about their secondary, the Steelers’ turnover rate (3rd) and pressure rate (9th) make them a solid pick against a struggling Bengals offensive line.
3. New England Patriots (at TEN) – The Patriots bounced back after a disappointing Week 6. With the Titans allowing 12.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, this could be a rebound week for New England.
Tier Two: Strong Contenders
4. Kansas City Chiefs (vs LV) – The Chiefs haven’t impressed this season, but the Raiders’ offensive line woes make this a favorable matchup. Controversial take: The Chiefs defense is due for a breakout game.
5. Cleveland Browns (vs MIA) – The Browns’ pass rush could exploit Miami’s turmoil, especially with Tua Tagovailoa under pressure. Question for you: Is this the week the Browns defense shines?
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs LAR) – The Jaguars have been a fantasy darling, but without Puka Nacua, the Rams offense loses its edge. Counterpoint: Are the Jaguars truly elite, or just benefiting from a weak schedule?
Tier Three: Borderline Top-10
8. Atlanta Falcons (at SF) – The Falcons’ young defense dominated the Bills, but the 49ers present a tougher challenge. Thought-provoking question: Can they sustain this momentum?
9. Indianapolis Colts (at LAC) – The Colts’ turnover rate (5th) makes them a sneaky play against a banged-up Chargers offense.
10. Seattle Seahawks (vs HOU) – The Seahawks’ defense has been solid, but Houston’s offensive line struggles could tip the scales in their favor.
Tier Four & Five: Deep League Targets and Avoid
Tier Four includes defenses like the Panthers and 49ers, who could surprise in deeper leagues. Tier Five? Steer clear of defenses like the Jets and Raiders unless you’re desperate.
Final Thoughts & Debate
This season’s unpredictability has made defense rankings a high-stakes game. Here’s my challenge to you: Which defense do you think is being overlooked? And which one is overhyped? Let’s debate in the comments. For a deeper dive, check out Eric’s Pick 3(DST) video on the NFL on NBC YouTube page. Let’s conquer Week 7 together!
